Mid-April 2025 Updates on Tariffs

Eight updates on tariffs.  "The Trumpers, in addition to not knowing what they’re doing, don’t even know what they want." -- P Krugman

  1. Trump's tariffs are "highly likely" to reignite inflation, Fed chair Powell said on April 16.
  2. Broad based 10% tariffs will boost manufacturing employment by 100,000 jobs and decrease employment overall by five times as much, roughly 500,000 jobs. This is a normal case forecast that does not include a possible recession. --Goldman Sachs report on Axios
  3. China’s government has suspended exports of rare earth minerals and magnets, both critical to many modern industries and the military.
  4. Chinese airlines had plans to buy 29 Boeing aircraft in 2025. China halted imports of American jets.
  5. Maros Sefcovic, the EU’s top trade official, reportedly has "struggled to determine America’s aims."
  6. The travel industry was worth $1.3 trillion in 2024, and supported 15 million U.S. jobs, per the U.S. Travel Association. Too soon to tell, but visitors from Germany were 28% down in March. Should I mention Canada?
  7. Bessent, Navarro, Lutnick — keep floating policy ideas in public, hoping that putting them out there will somehow create facts. But a day or two later another official will go on TV, or Trump will post something on Truth Social, completely contradicting what the last official said. -- P Krugman
  8. Neither NAFTA nor China are the causes of decreasing manufacturing in the US. It's the The evolution from dirty, hard, low pay manufacturing, to clean, comfortable, high paying tech and services. See chart below.


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